Statistics just released by the ARMLS system (Phoenix Valley MLS system) shows encouraging trends from 2011 and into 2012.
- The supply of existing homes on the market is at the second lowest level in 11 years. New listings have dropped by 30,000 units from 2010
- The median price is lower than 2010.
- The number of units sold is the second highest in 11 years and second lowest in price. Supply and demand are becoming more in balance.
- The average days on the market for homes dropped 13% in 2011.
- Foreclosures have slowed dramatically because the lenders are looking at short sales to resolve underwater properties.
- The most underwater owners have largely been through sale or foreclosure already.
All this, coupled with higher numbers of jobs creation, is signaling the bottom may have been reached. Arizona was 3rd nationally in jobs creation for 2011. Many were hi-tech jobs.
Homes have become more affordable and the cost of homeownership is lower for every household after the market adjustment of the past 5 years. Costs have come more in line with income.
The Phoenix MLS reflects mainly Maricopa County. However, as Maricopa County goes, so goes the State of Arizona. Sales in the Valley will allow those sellers to relocate to the secondary markets in the state. Jobs will follow in those areas.
Another factor that is beginning to take effect is that homeowners who had to short sell, goes through foreclosure, or file bankruptcy during the Great Recession are beginning to have their credit healed by the passage of time. They will become a wave of buyers.
As we see a turn strengthen it is likely that interest rates will start to climb. Those who have been on the sidelines may decide to buy now rather than risk the market and interest rates rising out of their reach. Now is the time to buy and lock in a low rate of interest.